Odds calculation on corners for Chelsea - Sheffield United match

The Corner-stats.com team once again welcomes all football statistics fans. Last week, our service was replenished with a new statistics analysis tool Bookmakers line calculation. And today, with its help, we will try to calculate the line on corners in the match Chelsea - Sheffield United.

Sheffield managed to tackle points at Chelsea last season (2-2 draw), but Chris Wilder's team is in terrible shape right now, making Chelsea the clear favorite in the match.

So, let's open the Corners tab on the match page  and go to the last matches of the teams. The button for calculating the bookmaker's line is located on the right next to the table of contents of Chelsea matches. By default, the individual totals of the teams (expected corners) are taken to calculate the line:

Expected corners Chelsea = Team total Chelsea + Opponents total Sheffield / 2

Expected corners of Sheffield = Team total Sheffield + Opponents total Chelsea / 2

But first, let's correct the teams' match samples. We will exclude the group of tournaments Other (clubs friendlies), and take only home matches for Chelsea, and only away matches for Sheffield. Thus, we get a couple of expected corners of the teams 6.15 - 4.25, which will be used by default in the calculation of the line:

In addition, Corner-stats.com draws your attention to the fact that Sheffield has the best ratio of team possession to team corners this season in EPL (1.87% possession per 1 corner), so we will add another 0.25 corners to Sheffield. Thus, we have the following line on corners in the match Chelsea - Sheffield United:

 

So, we got a base total of 10.5, like the bookmakers, but the base handicap of -1.5 differs from the bookmaker's one (-3.5), which says to bet on +3.5 on corners.

Please note that in this line calculation, we took into account the field (home-away) factor, as well as the Sheffield's ball possession to corners ratio. But there may be other important factors for you, for example, you can calculate the line based on similar matches or limit the samples of matches to the current season only, or increase the expected corners of one of the teams manually (for example, due tothe presence of high forwards in the lineup).

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